Quantitatively Assessing the Future Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes and Their Driving Factors in the Upper Stream of the Awash River Based on the CA–Markov Model and Their Implications for Water Resources Management

Despite the rapid economic and population growth, risks related to current dynamics of land use cover (LULC) have attracted a lot attention in Ethiopia. Therefore, complete investigation past future LULC changes is essential for sustainable water resources land-use planning management. Since 1980s, change has been detected upper stream Awash River basin. The main purpose this research was investigate combined application cellular automata Markov chain (CA–Markov) model simulate year 2038 future; key informant interviews, household surveys, focus group discussions, field observations were used assess consequences drivers upstream basin (USAB). This highlighted importance remote sensing (RS) geographic information system (GIS) techniques analyzing USAB. Multi-temporal cloud-free Landsat images three sequential data sets periods (1984, 2000, 2019) employed classify based on supervised classification map changes. Satellite imagery enhancement performed improve visualize image interpretation. ArcGIS10.4 IDRISI software classification, processing, analyses. Based 5 TM-GLS 1984, 7 ETM-GLS 8 2019 OLI-TIRS, maximum likelihood method dynamics. from classified possible 2038. result reveals that area covered by agricultural shrubland. It showed, areal extent, substantial increase urbanization decrease shrubland, forest, grassland, water. showed those larger rates observed forest shrubland areas. results study show radical during 1984–2019; reasons expansion urbanization. From 1984 2019, agriculture increased 62%, urban 570.5%, decreased 88.7%. In same year, 68.6%, 65.5%, grassland 57.7%. view greater urbanization, as well it means region changed. provides valuable managers planners make improvement policies development sub-basin management strategies context